Ominous PredictionsThe 2006 hurricane season was rather unusual. Only a year before had two major Hurricanes (i.e., Katrina, and Rita) attack the gulf coast creating historic levels of damage. The economic, and political repercussions of the 2005 hurricane season was unlike anything anyone had seen before. Global warming became an economic issue which directly effected the nation's economy. Insurance companies began to discuss global warming in real economic impact. The nation began to wonder if the government was prepared to handle another round of natural disasters.
At the outset of the 2006 hurricane season predictions of yet another severe hurricane season were made. In fact the severity, and number, or hurricane's striking the U.S. was expected to be worse than in 2005.
Then nothing happened.
Election Year Hurricane SeasonOne can only imagine what type of devastation a series of large hurricanes would have brought to the U.S. just one year after Katrina. Each new hurricane would have cost billions of dollars in damage to coastal communities, damaging the economy just before the November 2006 Mid Term elections. Hurricane Katrina had shown how politically damaging being unprepared for disasters could be. The 2005 hurricane season had also shown how damaging denying global warming could be. Would FEMA, and Homeland Defense have been prepared for another of severe hurricanes so soon after the 2005 hurricane season? If it wasn't who would have been blamed? How would public's perceptions of the Bush Administration been changed in light of another round of disasters? How would this predicted back to back round of hurricanes changed public perception of the issue of global warming?
We'll never know.
Perception Equals RealityMost people believe that weather is the result of natural, and random, phenomena. Some are beginning to believe that humans have inadvertently altered climate, and weather, to some degree through pollution, and global warming.
Almost no one believes that humans possess the technical means of altering weather.
It is precisely this widespread belief in human being's inability to alter weather which would enable such a program to be developed covertly.
Can Weather Be Modified?If most climate scientist were polled it is doubtful that a majority would reveal any belief that climate could be changed easily using existing technical means. Ask most meteorologist if they believe that weather could readily be altered, and most would chuckle. Current perception by those most informed about weather, and climate would likely characterize weather modification as futuristic.
But what technical means would need to exist in the future which don't currently that would enable modification of weather?
Global Dimming Cools Surface AreasWhile much talk has centered around the role of global warming upon climate little discussion, until recently, has been made about the role of global dimming. Global dimming is a process by which surface areas are cooled as a result of particulate matter in the atmosphere. Dust, and pollutants within clouds reduce the amount of infrared radiation (heat) which reaches the surface below. Most readers will recall the sudden drop of temperature which takes place immediately after a cloud hovers overhead on an otherwise sunny day. Clouds cool the Earth's surface by filtering infrared radiation, and also by reflecting sunlight back into space.
All Clouds Not Created EqualAll clouds do not alter the path of the sun's radiation equally. High altitude clouds (i.e., cirrus) reflect larger amounts of the sun's heat back into space than lower altitude clouds associated with thunderstorms (i.e., cumulus). While cumulus clouds soak up solar radiation, they also reduce the amount of heat reaching the surface below. Recent studies have shown that the amount of heat, and light reaching the earth's surface is significantly reduced through global dimming.
While earth's temperature has been on the rise from global warming, pollution has reduced temperatures around cities through global dimming. Human being's impact upon weather, and climate has been profound.
Doping Clouds With Carbon Dust - SootIf it were possible to gauge the effect of a given amount of pollution upon surface temperatures it might be possible to create a dataset upon which computer simulations could be based. Once simulations were created it might be possible to predict what effect would follow the deliberate addition of soot to the atmosphere might have. Such simulations would demand large amounts of computation time on very fast computers (super computers).
What would the effect be if a large area (continental) of cloud cover were deliberately doped with carbon dust? Could the temperature of a very large surface area be reduced?
What effect would carbon dust doping of large areas of cloud cover have upon the temperature of land, and water surfaces?
To what practical effect would such temperature reductions be put?
Creating Clouds The Old Fashioned Way - Jet ContrailsOn any given day over the U.S. thousands of high flying aircraft cross the sky. These aircraft often leave a reminder of their flight path in the form of long streaks of cloud called contrails.
Contrails by the thousands seed otherwise cloudless skies thus starting huge ranges of cloud cover which move in an easterly direction across the continental U.S.
Some accusations have been made that by slightly altering the ingredients to aviation fuel that significantly greater numbers of long lasting contrails can be produced.
It is obvious that in order to dope clouds with carbon dust (soot) that it is first necessary to have clouds, and therefore developing a means of increasing cloud production would be important to any weather modification program.
Stealth Aircraft Could Be Used For Cloud DopingOnce an initial range of cloud cover has been created there remains the task of increasing the particulate level with that cloud cover. Most of my readers will recall noticing how some clouds seem darker than others, and that as darker clouds pass overhead they usually cool the surface much more effectively than less dense clouds. The relationship between particulate levels, surface temperatures is clear from an observational standpoint.
Stealth aircraft could easily crisscross large areas of cloud cover without detection during the night spraying carbon dust into clouds. The effect would be to increase dimming, and reduce surface temperatures.
Water Surface Temperatures Drive HurricanesHurricane season typically last for several months. Hurricanes which hit the U.S. obtain their energy from solar energy which is stored in the uppermost surface areas of the ocean, and Gulf of Mexico. Reducing surface water temperatures for even a short period during the hurricane season might be possible through directed surface dimming. Any such program would cost hundreds of millions of dollars, would involve at the very least dozens of aircraft for several months, and could only be carried out covertly using stealth aircraft.
Would It Be Worth The Cost?The magnitude of damage caused by a string of major hurricanes would have totaled in the hundreds of billions of dollars. An advanced covert weather modification program running a months long operation to cool a small portion of the Gulf of Mexico, or Mid Atlantic may cost several billion dollars, but would be economically justified.
ImplicationsThere certainly would be implications. The insurance industry assumes that hurricanes are natural disasters, other nations assume that droughts caused by a lack of precipitation due to a lack of hurricanes is an act of god. International treaties to which the U.S. is a signatory make it clear that altering the weather to this extent would be illegal. Certainly there is a need to way the cost of modify weather in light of economic, and political considerations, but it must also be kept in mind that the effects of global warming can not be covered up with global dimming for much longer.
The broader issue of man's impact upon climate must be addressed, and any such covert program employed to mitigate the effect of global warming must not be abused for political ends.
Covert History - Can You Remember?Does anyone remember the colder than usual days in late August?
The colder than usual days in the first weeks of September?
The darker than usual clouds which filled the Midwestern skies in 2006?
Whole days of cloud cover in which the clouds were very dark, but it never rained, and the temperatures were very cold. The winds were coming from the northwest heading to the gulf states. Thick, cold air, moving toward the gulf at the beginning of hurricane season.
Does anyone remember?
