Thursday, November 20, 2008

The Inevitable Bombing Of Iran

The government of Iran will not reverse course on their headlong pursuit of building an atomic arsenal. The petty attempts that the U.S. and Europe make at punishing Iran will fail utterly in persuading Iran to cease its nuclear ambitions. And most important of all, those in power in Europe and the United States will come to the inevitable conclusion that Iran must be stopped militarily.

The question is when this attack will happen, not if the attack will happen. With George W. Bush's historically low approval ratings it is doubtful 'W' will launch an attack before he leaves office. This was a real possibility up until the 2008 Presidential election results came in. A quick bombing run just before a hand off to the McCain administration was certainly possible, however, the Bush Administration lacks any remnants of credibility on either the domestic or international front.

Despite any belief that an Obama Administration will lack sufficient backbone to deal Iran's nuclear ambitions a fatal blow it is more likely that Iran's nuclear program will become the center of an Obama Middle East policy once U.S. troops leave Iraq. Despite the proximity of troops within Iraq the U.S. presence in Iraq is more a hindrance to the U.S. in terms of forcing an Iranian capitulation.

Despite any increased diplomatic pressure the U.S. puts upon Iran after the U.S. leaves Iraq the simple fact remains - Iran considers acquisition of nuclear weapons paramount to all other considerations. Acquiring nuclear weapons is more important to the Iranian government than feeding its own people, and nothing short of the destruction of its military will stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

I would expect a full scale air assault of Iranian radar installations, air bases, missile facilities, navy, communications facilities, select governmental facilities, and of course nuclear assets, within the next eight years - most likely at, or near the end of Barack Obama's second term or perhaps sooner.

By then the U.S. had better be much less dependent upon oil imports from the Middle East. For that reason I suggest that the U.S. expand it's strategic oil reserves so as to be able to support transportation, heating, and industrial needs for one year at current usage. The U.S. also needs to rapidly replace its inefficient automobiles.

The reason for this course of action is that Iran will launch missile attacks against oil facilities in neighboring states.

Iran will also attack Israel. This much is anticipated, and will result in the need for a sustained series of massive air assaults against Iranian governmental and industrial facilities - on a scale not seen since the Iraq war - with the difference being that no attempt at holding territory will be made.

Do I really believe this will happen? Yes, because any sane and rational individual would realize the absolute necessity of making certain that Iran doesn't become a nuclear state.

There is little doubt that a nuclear armed Iran would initiate an attack against Israel which would of course lead to the nuclear destruction of Israel, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and possibly Egypt.

The surviving military of Israel, witnessing the incineration of its population, would no doubt carry out a final solution to the Islamic problem - and there is little the U.S. or any other state would be able to do to stop it.

One of the greatest disasters of the Bush Administration is its attempt to occupy Iraq, instead of attacking Iran. Containing Iraq, and attacking Iranian nuclear sites would have been far less expensive and resulted in a better long term outcome than the debacle the neocons within the Bush Administration have created.

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