Monday, November 03, 2008

My 2008 Presidential Election Prediction

First of all - vote - if you are an Obama supporter. If you support McCain, or are undecided then it is perfectly o.k. for you to stay home this time around.

Here's my prediction: Election goes to Obama with 311 electoral votes.

I won't review the solid red or blue states here - just the contentious states.

Obama takes: PA, VA, CO, NV, and OH (just taking PA will win it for Obama).

McCain takes: FL, GA, NC, MO, IN, ND, and MT (although I predict these states will be close).

Essentially, McCain will fail to take the states Bush won with, and Obama will have helped to move several Red states in the Blue state category (possibly for years to come).

I based my decision on the following: Using www.pollster.com (I find this the best source) I gave 3/4 of undecided votes to McCain which tosses all tossup states back into the Red category. However, in PA, and OH, the small portion of undecideds who chose not to vote on racial lines, and who will vote for Obama are critically important to my scenario working out.

I simply accepted the argument that most undecideds are white, and will vote along racial lines - which is what the McCain camp is hoping for. McCain, however, has failed to take any of Obama's already decided votes away, and his dirty campaign has failed in this regard.

There you have it. McCain's attempt to scare people away from Obama fails, and not all undecideds vote along racial lines - which ends McCain's long nightmarish bid for the presidency.

My prediction for the future

Also, due to the slow and inexorable changes in the demographic makeup of the nation we will see how the states I listed above as tossups will shift Blue over the next decade. The all while Republican party is in grave trouble unless it becomes more inclusive, and less anti good government.

Where I Might Be Wrong

Florida might just go for Obama, and Ohio might go for McCain. These states are very close, although Obama could still lose both, and handily win the election anyway.

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